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Hawkblogger Weekly

2013 - Week 18

Table of Contents

InfoGraphic: Seahawks Passing Game: What Has Changed?

Saturday, January 4, 2014

While working on a season progress report for Russell Wilson, I noticed a change in some numbers around the depth of his throws. Specifically, the ratio of short-to-deep throws changed, as did Wilson's success rate on the longer throws. The infographic in this article captures a few of the numbers to take a look at.

These statistics were compiled week-by-week from ESPN.com splits of Wilson's season. I thought Wilson may have shown some improvement in the last game, but could not prove it because Elias Sports Bureau stats that ESPN relies on did not update for pass depth in either Week 16 or Week 17 for Wilson. That is why you will see four-game splits for the first three-quarters of the season below, but just two games for the final quarter.

Seahawks Playoff Freshmen

Sunday, January 5, 2014

Something happens when the playoffs start. The field is the same. The rules are the same. Yet, every decision, every action is amplified, and the amplification grows with each tick of the clock as the teams hurdle toward the ultimate prize. Some people are wired to thrive in those moments. Others, become lesser men. It is one of the more fascinating elements to this game we love. Seattle features a number of players who will either be experiencing the playoffs for the first time, or will have far more prominent roles than in the past. They will learn along with us whether they have the mettle of a champion.

Percy Harvin

Harvin played in two playoff games his rookie year in Minnesota in 2009. Neither game was much to crow about. He had 1 receiving yard and 23 rushing yards in the first game, and 38 receiving yards and 15 rushing yards in the second (a loss to eventual SB Champion New Orleans). That was in Darrell Bevell's offense, but was so long ago, and as a rookie, that there is much left to discover about who Percy Harvin is in the playoffs. His availability for this game remains in doubt, but all eyes will be on him if he plays.

Michael Bennett

Bennett has never played in a playoff game. He led the Seahawks in sacks, and is among the most emotional and inspired players on the defense. His make-up lends itself to this type of atmosphere. He feels no pressure, and feeds off the energy. Whoever he faces will have their hands full.

Cliff Avril

Avril made the playoffs in 2011 with Detroit for his one game in the post-season. He registered a half-sack. He is a pro, but we have not seen him play to the home crowd that much. More of his sacks (4.5) came away from CLink. He may be the same player in the post-season that he was in the regular season, which is far from a bad thing.

Jermaine Kearse

On the roster for both playoff games last year, Kearse will be a central part of the game plan this time around. He has shown a knack for making tough catches for big plays this year, but he also seems like a guy who cares a fair amount what others think of him. Confidence can be made or broken for him with the first opportunity he gets. It is not hard to imagine him making a national name for himself because so few know him, but what people will say is up to him to determine.

Tony McDaniel

The big fella gets his first taste of playoff action after seven seasons of watching at home. He seems like a guy who will be himself no matter what people say or what the situation brings. He is a mean man, and this moment is not likely to be too big for him. Expect the same steady, quality, play we have seen throughout the year.

Byron Maxwell

Active for the Redskins game last year, Maxwell was out with an injury against the Falcons. He likely starts his first playoff game on Saturday. His play thus far has been top-notch, and this will not be his first start against Drew Brees and the Saints this year. It would be hard for Maxwell to raise his game in the playoffs given his performance thus far. If he can simply maintain it, Seahawks fans would be thrilled.

Walter Thurmond III

Thurmond was around for the two playoff games in 2010 during his rookie year, but his role will be far expanded this time around. He has greatness in him when he is on the field. Injuries and bad decisions have kept him from it. This is a player who could burst onto the national stage this post-season, and make a bundle of cash on free agency doing so.

Malcom Smith

Smith was active for both playoff games last season, but was still sharing time with Leroy Hill, and mostly sat. He will try to fill the big shoes of K.J. Wright who was a major factor in shutting down Jimmy Graham in the first game. Smith is in his element, and gaining steam with every start. He is built to make impact plays from his WILL position, and I see nothing in his make-up that would change that for the playoffs.

Luke Wilson

Willson is the most utilized rookie on the roster, and will be questionable to play in the first game due to an ankle sprain. He is steady and smart. Assuming he plays, the stage should not be too big for him.

Kellen Davis

The other tight end does have some playoff experience that Seahawks fans might remember. Davis' first playoff appearance came in 2010 against the Seahawks, and included a long touchdown over Lawyer Milloy.

Seahawks Vs Saints: A Look At What Has Changed

Monday, January 6, 2014

No two games are the same. The teams may be the same. The location may be the same. But football teams morph across a season, and even after just five weeks since the last time the Seahawks played the Saints, there are key differences between the teams that battled that night.

Saints Personnel Changes

The Saints have suffered some key injuries, while only getting back one rotational player.

OUT: SS Kenny Vaccaro / IN: SS Roman Harper

Vaccaro is one of the big losses for the Saints. He was having a good rookie season before landing on the IR with a fractured ankle a few weeks back. He still finished third on the Saints in tackles, third in tackles for loss, and fourth in passes defensed. He had 10 tackles, and a tackle for loss in the first game against Seattle. In his place will be aging vet Roman Harper. Harper is a significant liability in pass coverage. He had over 90 tackles in his past four seasons before losing his role to Vaccaro, so he can still play.

OUT: LT Charles Brown / IN: LT Terron Armstead

Brown was not cutting it at left tackle, and has been replaced by rookie Terron Armstead. Brown actually played one of his better games against the Seahawks the first go-around. Even after being replaced for most of the final two games of the year, Brown still was second in the NFL among tackles in penalties. Armstead is a superior player, probably both as a run blocker and as a pass protector, but he is far from perfect. He has totaled three penalties in his three starts, which is a higher rate than Brown, and has only one positive grade in pass protection from ProFootballFocus. This would be as good a game as any for Chris Clemons to make his presence felt.

OUT: K Garrett Hartley / IN: K Shayne Graham

Hartley missed two field goals against the Rams and was cut. Graham has been a reliable kicker throughout his career. He had a bad playoff game for the Bengals in 2009 when he missed two kicks that largely cost them the game. Seahawks fans hoping he is a choke artist should probably look elsewhere as those are his only two misses in 15 playoff attempts, including a clutch 4-4 performance in Philadelphia this past weekend.

OUT: CB Chris Carr / IN: S Rafael Bush & CB Rod Sweeting

Carr was modestly used dime corner that sometimes moved into the nickel spot after the Saints lost starter Jabari Greer for the season. He was cut the same week Hartley was let go, and that has led to increased snaps for Bush and rookie Sweeting. Bush is a solid player, but has made few impact plays (only 1 tackle for loss, no interceptions, no forced fumbles). Sweeting is a young one, and only started playing a handful of snaps the last two games (14 vs TB, 17 vs PHI). If Sweeting plays at all, look for the Seahawks to attack him with any of their top four receivers.

LIKELY OUT: LB Parys Haralson / IN: LB Will Herring

Haralson is a former 49er who joined the Saints this year, and has been a bruising addition. He does not make a lot of tackles, but was a good pass rusher (3.5 sacks) and playmaker (4 tackles for loss). It was reported on Saturday night that he tore his pectoral muscle versus Philadelphia. That is not an injury that automatically means a player is out. Tarvaris Jackson played a season with one on his throwing side. We will learn more this week, but this would be another significant loss. Haralson had one of his sacks and one of his tackles for loss against the Seahawsk in Week 13. Herring was originally drafted by the Seahawks, and is a special teams player. He is nowhere near the playmaker Haralson is.

POSSIBLY OUT: RB Pierre Thomas

Thomas is a big part of the Saints team. He led the team in rushing, and is a tough interior runner. He missed the Eagles game with a back injury. It is not clear what his prognosis is. Thomas had four carries for zero yards in the first game, and would surely have something to prove. Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson get the snaps if Thomas is out. Ingram did not fare much better in the first game (8 car 22 yds 2.8 YPC). Both are tough runners. Neither are feature back material.

POSSIBLY OUT: CB Keenan Lewis

Lewis is the team's best corner, and had to leave the Eagles game with a concussion. He was desperate to return, but the team would not allow him to. Expect him to play against Seattle. If he does not...yikes.

BACK: DE Glenn Foster

Glenn Foster is a rotational defensive lineman who has 3.0 sacks on the year. He missed the first game with the Seahawks, but is back to being available.

Seahawks Personnel Changes

Seattle is much the same team the Saints faced in Week 13 with a few notable exceptions.

OUT: LB K.J. Wright / IN: LB Malcolm Smith

Wright was a major part of the victory over the Saints. He shadowed Jimmy Graham around the field, holding him to 3 catches for 42 yards and one touchdown. He also had a tackle for loss. Linebacker play is absolutely crucial when facing the Saints as they spread you laterally with swing passes to backs like Darren Sproles and vertically with Graham. Smith is no slouch. He even played a bit in the first Saints game, registering 3 tackles in only 6 snaps. He does not have Wright's length, but he has significantly more speed. Smith was known as a coverage linebacker at USC, and that has proven true in the NFL. Smith has been adept at sniffing out swing passes to backs and screens, which will be important against the Saints.

POSSIBLY PLAYING: WR Percy Harvin

The Saints gave up 310 yards receiving in the first game, and Russell Wilson had 3 touchdows and 0 interceptions to help him to 139.6 rating. Add even a limited Harvin to the mix, and the Saints defensive coaches will have their hands full. A Saints team featuring an older safety in Harper and an inexperienced corner in Sweeting makes the sledding that much tougher. If Harvin plays and Lewis somehow doesn't, the disparity grows to a massive mismatch.

IN: CB Walter Thurmond

Thurmond missed the first game due to suspension. He was eased back in versus St. Louis, only playing about 30% of the snaps, but will be a useful weapon against the likes of Lance Moore and Kenny Stills. Byron Maxwell has played so well in Thurmond and Brandon Browner's absence that people forget just how good Thurmond is. He is a Pro Bowl talent at corner, and a welcome addition to the secondary.

POSSIBLY OUT: TE Luke Willson

Willson looked out for sure after having an air cast administered on the field against the Rams, but he has been running, and sounds like he may play. That would be a big deal, even though he had only 1 catch for 2 yards in the first game. Zach Miller had 5 catches for 86 yards and a touchdown in that game, so the tight end position matters, especially with Harper taking over for Vaccaro.

An Early Look: Saints And Seahawks Evenly Matched

Tuesday, January 7, 2014

Experiencing the glory that was a 34-7 beat down of the Saints earlier this season can make it difficult to assess a rematch. Seattle so thoroughly destroyed the Saints in nearly all phases of the game that the convenient narrative is that the Seahawks will impose their will once more. Even with the injury issues for the Saints, and the possible return of a player like Percy Harvin, this feels like a game that will be decided in the fourth quarter between two closely matched teams.

Momentum Roughly Equal

Ashley Fox, over at ESPN.com, suggested that the Saints may be getting hot at the right time. Besides being the most tired cliche of the NFL playoffs, it also is not true. New Orleans is 3-3 in their last six games including their win in Philadelphia last week, and have outscored their opponents 135-132. They won their final game at home 42-17 against a Bucs team that had nothing to play for, and beat the Eagles on a last-second field goal. Both were solid victories, but there is not much to suggest they have found new life.

Every national pundit is glomming on to the idea that the Seahawks are playing poorly, and that the Saints are catching a vulnerable team. When a team starts 11-1, vulnerability is all relative. Take Seattle's last six games. They are 4-2 and have outscored their opponents 152-72. Even if you just narrow it to the last four games when the Seahawks went 2-2, they outscored their opponents 77-45. There are a number of playoff teams that would be quite happy to have the Seahawks six-game performance record, and everyone would pick the Seahawks performance over the Saints.

New Orleans comes in with one thing the Seahawks do not have this year, and that is a playoff win. That makes things about equal between both teams in terms of momentum and confidence.

Offenses Roughly Equal

This can't be true. Can it? The Seahawks offense is tanking and the weakness of this team, and the Saints offense is one of the best in football and led by genius offensive mind Sean Payton and Hall of Fame thrower Drew Brees. Once again, the truth evades the superficial.

Seattle scored more points per game (26.1) than the Saints (25.9). Seattle had a better Red Zone scoring percentage (56% - 54%). Seattle was the more efficient scoring offense, scoring 0.43 points per play run compared to 0.38 points per play for New Orleans. Take it a step further. Compare their performance against like opponents.

Both teams played, St. Louis, Arizona, San Francisco, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and Carolina. The high-powered Saints offense averaged 23.6 points per game in those contests. The hopeless and hapless Seahawks offense somehow managed 22.6 against the same defenses. Consider that comparison includes Seattle playing the 49ers, Cardinals and Rams defense twice and the Saints playing the Falcons twice.

There is no argument that the Seahawks offense has not put its best foot forward the last four weeks, but the Saints have had their recent struggles as well that include games of 13 points, 16 points and 7 versus this Seahawks defense.

Both teams can point to recent successes running the football against formidable rush defenses as reasons for optimism. Both teams have quarterbacks that have shown they rise to the occasion in big games and big moments.

Seahawks fans can wring their hands about the offense, and the world can perpetuate the myth that the Saints have a decided advantage there, but that is all it really is, a myth.

Seahawks Defense Clearly Better

Numbers can tell you anything you want. A Saints fan will comfort themselves knowing that even if the Seahawks ranked #1 in the NFL in points allowed (14.4 ppg) and yards allowed (273.6), the Saints ranked #4 and #3 in those categories. The rankings are similar. The quality of the defenses are not. Look at those numbers again. The two teams may be separated by just three spots in the scoring rankings, but the Saints allowed 4.9 ppg more than the Seahawks (19.3). That is the difference between the Saints and the 20th-ranked Buffalo Bills defense that allowed 24.2 ppg. A similar story could be told about total yards where the Seahawks hold a 29 yards per game advantage over the Saints.

None of this is to say the Saints defense is bad, or even average. They are a very tough defense that gets terrific pressure on the passer and plays the run very well. They just are not the Seahawks.

Take the same comparison of like opponents we did for the offenses. The Saints allowed 16.8 ppg versus the Seahawks 13.3. If you limit the comparison to the same circumstances (i.e., New Orleans only played St. Louis in St. Louis, so throw out the home game for Seattle vs. St. Louis), the Seahawks average drops to 11.7 ppg allowed.

One number tells the story better than any other as far as the differences between these two defensive units. The Saints rank #1 in the NFL in time of possession. That has led to their defense being on the field less than any other in the NFL. Despite having significantly more plays run against them this season than the Saints defense, the Seahawks defense ranked #1 in the NFL in yards per play allowed at 4.4, while the Saints were 10th at 5.1. The 2005 Seahawks defense was similar to the 2013 Saints defense. Good enough to win if the offense is controlling the game and the ball, but not good enough to win on their own in most cases.

Seattle's defense is more like the 2002 Bucs or even the 2000 Ravens in terms of their performance relative to the rest of the league. Defenses like that can win games with, or without, their offense.

The X-Factors

Turnovers

One of the biggest advantages in this game for Seattle is one they have the least control over. New Orleans is 18th in the NFL in turnover margin while Seattle is #1. The major culprit here is a Saints defense that struggles to create takeaways. They ranked 29th in the NFL in creating turnovers while the Seahawks were the best in the league. The Saints have created more than one turnover in a game five times this season, and none in their past ten games. This puts a tremendous amount of pressure on the Saints offense to protect the ball, and Brees is much closer to Brett Favre in his gunslinger mentality than he is to Russell Wilson.

When the Saints do turn the ball over, it tends to be their undoing. This past weekend was a rare exception where they lost the turnover battle 2-0, but won the game. In their six regular season games when the offense turned the ball over 2 or more times, the Saints went 2-4, saw their ppg drop to 19.2 and their points allowed to jump to 22.3. A defense that is highly dependent on their offense to possess the ball has a very hard time mitigating the effects of a giveaway by their offense. The Saints only turned the ball over one time in the first match-up, but it turned into a touchdown, and the team never recovered.

Seattle defenders have created more than two turnovers in 12 of their 16 games. Do that again on Saturday, and the outcome should be a positive one.

Percy Harvin

Nobody knows what to expect from Harvin. I'm not even sure Harvin knows what to expect from Harvin. He could be the nitrous oxide for the Seahawks offensive engine, or he could be standing on the sidelines. The Saints do not have a defender well suited to defend Harvin should he play. They are not going to take their best corner Keenan Lewis and put him in the slot against Harvin. Even if they did, it would leave Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin with vastly inferior corners opposite them. It could increase the amount of zone coverage the Saints play, but the thought of David Hawthorne or Will Herring trying to drop into a zone and trying to keep up with Harvin on a crossing route has to send shivers down the spine of Saints coaches and fans. Harvin is a massive wildcard in this game, the likes of which have rarely been seen in a game so late in the year.

Underdogs

New Orleans will grab hold of the underdog role in this game and use it as motivation. They have not, however, done well in games this season they were not favored to win. There have been four games, including the playoff game against the Eagles, where the Saints have entered as underdogs. Their record in those games is 1-3, and the winning team covered each time the Saints lost.

Opponent Scores 21+

The Saints defense is good, but when an opposing offense has even modest success against them, the Saints tend to lose. There were five games this season, including the Eagles games, when a Saints opponent scored more than 21 points. New Orleans is 1-4 in those games. All of them were on the road.

68,000 + 53

Seahawks fans are known around the league almost more than their team. They have broken noise records when things are going well. The playoffs require a whole other level of dedication to disruption. A CenturyLink Field that grumbles or boos should the offense struggle to score won't cut it. Not if the fans want to be a positive factor in the outcome. Whole sections of fans sitting or clapping instead of yelling won't do it either. What kind of crowd shows up to this game will play a major role in determining the outcome.

Carroll Vs Payton

Both teams will make adjustments after the first game. Who gets an early edge from those changes will set the tone for the game. Which coaching staff can make the best in-game adjustments will be a major factor in the outcome. The best test here will be the offensive mind of Payton versus the defensive mind of Carroll.

Take It All In

The Seahawks offense may be equivalent to the Saints in many ways and the Seahawks defense may be appreciably better than their Saints counterpart, but they do not play one another. Seattle's defense wants to be included in the list of all-time greats. They earn that through playoff excellence. It starts Saturday with a Super Bowl Champion quarterback and his clever offensive-minded head coach. No team in the NFL has played close to the same level of defense as the Seahawks have heading into the post-season. Should that continue, the Seahawks have a very good chance of moving on to the next round. If they should falter, the pressure builds on the offense to win their match-up with the Saints defense. They did that in resounding fashion in the first game, but expect this one to take a different shape.

Marshawn Lynch was a non-factor in that game. Russell Wilson beat the Saints on blitzes with big down-field throws. It would not be a shock to see a far better result from Lynch on the ground and less gaudy numbers for Wilson. The sweetest outcome for the doubted and belittled Seahawks offense would be a game they perform like champions. Those guys believe, rightfully so, that they are far better than most give them credit for. This is another chance to prove it.

New Orleans needs their offense to outfox the Seahawks defense and their defense to hold the Seahawks offense under 20 points. That has been done only once all year, with the Seahawks averaging 29 ppg at home. If Seattle can find their way into the mid-20s in this game, the Saints chances greatly diminish.

These two teams both enter the game with realistic hopes of winning. The odds are Seattle's favor, but execution and coaching adjustments throughout the afternoon will determine who wins up on top.

Player News: Haralson, Harvin, Willson, Keenan, And Isa

Tuesday, January 7, 2014

New Orleans fans got some good news, some bad news and some puzzling news today. Seahawks fan stuck with the good news side of the ledger.

As had been expected, the Saints lost LB Parys Haralson to a torn pectoral muscle. They placed him on IR today. Haralson is a significant loss. At over 255 lbs, Haralson was an enforcer-type outside linebacker in the Saints 3-4 defense. He had a handful of sacks (3.5), including one in the first game against the Seahawks, but was a more integral part of their run defense. He set the edge better than any other linebacker on their roster, meaning he helped funnel outside runs back inside to the heart of the defense. Larger linebackers tend to be more adept at doing this as they are asked to take on tight ends and tackles. Will Herring stepped in for Haralson after he was injured in the Philly game, but Herring is not the same player. He is far lighter, weighing in the low 240s, and is not as strong. He has very limited pass rush skills, but is probably a better coverage linebacker. This qualifies as a "I don't know how you fix it," type of problem for the Saints. This was a unique player on their roster, and they don't have any young depth that is waiting to make their mark in his place. This will absolutely have an impact on their game plan, knowing that Seattle is going to be intent on running the ball. Safety Roman Harper will likely be asked to dedicate even more attention to the line of scrimmage to help out. Of course, Harper is a back-up as well. And Harper already struggles in coverage, so the Saints are going to have pick their poison, and the Seahawks are going to have to shove that poison down the beignet-holes.

Keenan Lewis, the Saints top corner, practiced today and looks almost certain to play. New Orleans fans are surely happy about that, but their excitement is misplaced. Having Lewis is far better than not having him, but the benefit of a Seattle attack that does not feature any one receiver is that Lewis is just another name on the field. Lining up across from DeSean Jackson makes sense. Having Lewis shadow Golden Tate all afternoon just means Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse and that former-MVP candidate will be going against lesser players. The Saints are thin at corner and safety. Lewis playing keeps them from being at the Etric Pruitt level of depth, but does not really help them cover the variety of weapons Seattle will bring to bear through the air.

A name you will likely not hear anywhere else on the Seattle side of things is Isa Abdul-Quddus. He was cut by the Saints today to make room for another corner, Jordan Pugh. I had never heard of Quddus until I started watching Saints film this week. He was all over the field on punt coverage against the Seahawks in the first game. Tate was in good position to break a couple returns if Quddus had not been there to bring him down. Saints fans were trying to figure out his release when the news broke this afternoon.

Some were guessing there may have been team rule violations or something else off-field because most considered him a valuable part of their special teams. Seahawks fans should just realize the New Orleans punt coverage unit just got a little weaker.

On the Seattle side of the day's news, Tate added his name to the list of people who would know that expects Percy Harvin to play. We are now officially out of the, "is Pete just doing this for gamesmanship," neck of the woods and headed firmly into, "holy shit, this guy is going to play," territory. The best part of getting him back would be the decisions it would force in coverage and play-calling for Rob Ryan. They simply cannot ignore his presence. Should Harvin make it all the way back, what was an advantage for Seattle with their receivers versus the Saints corners becomes one of the largest mismatches in the game.

Luke Willson practiced today as well, and may just play a couple weeks after a high ankle sprain. Those injuries often involve ligament damage, so the idea that he may be back so soon is shocking and big boost to the run game. His 4.5 speed probably will not be there, but his strength and reliability as an outlet for Russell Wilson should be.

To Whom Much Is Given, Much Is Required

Wednesday, January 8, 2014

Driving along Route 1 in California is among the most beautiful road experiences in the United States. The asphalt curves and climbs beneath your wheels, flanked by a wall of rock that climbs to the sky on one side and a cliff that dives into the sea on the other. Blue ocean becomes white foam, melting into the rocks below. At some point along the journey, you realize just how far down below those rocks are, and how close your car is to joining them. The beauty and serenity is replaced with concern and caution. Any driver's ed teacher will tell you that your car will follow your eyes. Stare at the rocks and ocean at the bottom of a steep cliff , and your car will start drifting in that direction. The very thing that makes the drive so rewarding and enriching makes it risky and dangerous. As Seattle prepares to embark on what we all hope is a historic run to this city's first NFL championship, I find myself thrilled by the heights and keenly aware of the rocks below.

Few cities appreciate how hard it is to win a championship than this one. We have seen baseball teams win more games than any other team in history. We have seen baseball teams that have the best player and best pitcher in the game. We have seen a football team romp it's way to the Super Bowl. What we have not seen, for any team that still plays here, is the trophy that signifies the ultimate team accomplishment. There have been no parades. No Sports Illustrated commemorative editions. No refs congratulating instead of apologizing. Yet, we persevere.

San Francisco fans love to flaunt their five Lombardi trophies. Forget that most of them were in diapers the last time they won one, and in hiding for a decade while the team struggled. Show me the ones who were fans from day one of the franchise and had to wait 37 years to win their first championship. Have them describe the feeling they had when that drought was finally broken. Those tiny minority of 49er fans know the path we walk in Seattle.

Life is a collection of moments. We collect them and carry them with us while we set out in search of the next one. Those of us that unite behind the blue, green and silver have a spot reserved for that moment when the Seahawks break through and leave no doubt. We daydream about what we will do when that moment arrives. None of us know that feeling, but I'm pretty sure it will be something we take with us and recount for generations to come. Patriot, 49er, Packer and Giants fans may have trophies, but they will never again experience the splendor of winning their first. That is ours for the taking.

To whom much is given, much is required. These Seahawks have been blessed with a great owner, great coach, great general manager, great teammates, great fans, and good health in most cases. It is up to them to seize this opportunity. But not just them. Seahawks fans have been given a terrific team, filled with terrific people. We are accountable for making that field as inhospitable as is legally and ethically possible on Saturday. Selling your ticket on a ticket exchange to someone who may be a Saints fan is not going to help.

We have done loud. It is time for Seahawks fans to innovate beyond that. There is nothing keeping us from varying our noise levels. We could start simulating snap counts. Yelling "Hut!, Hut! Hut!" as the teams approach the line of scrimmage. It will take some organizing, but we could do it. There have to be new and different ways to improve the advantage we have built here. We have three days to make it happen.

This is the best team in franchise history by nearly every measure. Getting to this point takes so much more than being the most talented. Schedule, injury, and a host of other variables can make a great team average in any given year. As good as Tom Brady and the Patriots have been for the past 10+ years, including an undefeated season in 2007, they have not won a championship since 2004. So much has to go right, even for the very best teams, to reach that peak. Nothing can be taken for granted. Seattle is rightfully given the best odds to win the Super Bowl of any team in the playoffs, but there is still a greater chance that they will not win than that they will. We have a chance. A great chance, but that's all it is, a chance. An opportunity to be the best.

Guess who else has a chance? The New Orleans Saints. Their chance is not as good, but they have walked the path before. What are you doing to make sure their season ends Saturday? Do more. Prepare yourself for adversity. Cheer in the face of it. Give the offense a loud cheer after a three-and-out the way you would a player exiting the game in the NBA. Start cheering immediately after a big play by the Saints. Show them their punches have no effect, the way a player pops back up after a big hit. Be your best. Leave no doubt.

Pete Carroll is leading a Seattle caravan down a road he has driven before. We are seeing things never before seen in these parts. The view is breathtaking, and is bound to get better as long as we keep our eyes on the road. This is not the place for cruise control or texting. This drive requires two hands on the wheel and your best music blaring out of the speakers.

The Seahawks now face a crucible with different dangers and tests. Nobody will underestimate them. Every game will bring out the best in their opponent. Drew Brees and the Saints are not Mark Brunell and the Redskins from 2005. And that Redskins team made Seattle earn every point in a 20-10 victory. There is no ticker-tape parade without winning this game. This Seattle team and fans are the best in the NFL. It is time to prove it.

Cross-Talk: Brian Answers Questions From The Saints Nation Blog

Thursday, January 9, 2014

Andrew Juge, over at The Saints Nation offered to do some Q & A about our respective teams before the playoff game this Saturday. Andrew fired off his questions first. Here are his questions and my answers.

TSN: Will Percy Harvin play? If so, do you think this could actually work against the Seahawks? They've used him so little this year the offense would have to work in a guy they don't really have reps with, and he'd be rusty. Am i stupid to actually hope he plays?

HB: It sure looks like Harvin will play, which is remarkable. All indications were that he was going to be placed on injured reserve, and now this. Could it work against the Seahawks? Sure it could. Adding a player into the rotation this late in the year is far from ideal. His snaps mean less for other players that have been a big part of how the team got to this point. At the same time, the chances it will work against Seattle are far less than it working against the Saints. Harvin played in Darrell Bevell's offense in Minnesota. His adjustment will be about getting back to game speed more than needing to learn the plays or reads. I do not envy Rob Ryan needing to plan his coverages with a depleted secondary knowing a guy of Harvin's talent is being added in and almost no film to prepare with. Think about the impact Michael Crabtree has had in returning late in the year for San Francisco. Harvin is a better player, and far harder to anticipate how he will be used.

TSN: 7 points scored last time won't cut it. How do the Saints get points on this Seahawks defense? What can be done to break the 20 point barrier? Anything?

HB: The only way to score with any consistency against Seattle is to run the ball well. Even then, things get much tougher in the red zone. Any team with Drew Brees can find a way to score. Seattle's defense just forces him to be patient, taking short passes down the field instead of the chunk plays he prefers. Most quarterbacks eventually get impatient and test the team deep. That has rarely worked out. The play of the Saints offensive line will be paramount. They have to win the battle with the Seahawks defensive line in the run game and in pass protection if the Saints want to put up meaningful points.

TSN: The Saints held Lynch to 45 yards on 16 carries, and gave up 34 points. 7 of that was a defensive touchdown, but still. Do the Saints play the same way, stop Lynch, and hope Wilson doesn't catch fire this time or is it time to ditch that plan and try something else?

HB: Stopping Lynch is priority #1, #2 and #3. If he gets going, and is grinding up 3-5 yards on first down carries, this Seahawks offense can put up a lot of points. New Orleans did great in that regard in the first game, and still saw the scoreboard light up. If I am Rob Ryan, I do everything I can to stop Lynch, and take my chances that Wilson cannot replicate that Monday Night performance.

TSN: What's the pulse on Seahawks fans? I'm assuming there is zero fear of the Saints whatsoever after what happened last time.

HB: You would be surprised. This city has seen disappointment after disappointment. Many fans, including myself, are almost more comfortable as an underdog. Fans that study the numbers and watch closely know just how good this team is. There is a reason they are the favorites to win the Super Bowl. That makes each game that much more nerve-wracking. These chances do not come very often. Brees and Sean Payton are very well-respected up here, and most people I interact with are more worried about the game than excited for it.

TSN: Any other thoughts on the matchup?

HB: The weather could end up being a factor. Throwing in the cold is one thing. Throwing in the wind and rain is another. Seattle is far better suited for a wet and windy football game than New Orleans. Still, I'm expecting Brees to play a great game and take this thing all the way into the fourth quarter. It will be a battle, and the winner will have another tough game next week.

Cross-Talk: Saints Nation Blog Answers My Questions

Thursday, January 9, 2014

Andrew Juge, over at The Saints Nation offered to do some Q & A about our respective teams before the big Monday Night showdown. Andrew fired off his questions first, which I answered here. Here are my questions for him and his answers.

HB: What does the loss of Parys Haralson mean to the Saints defense, both run and pass?

TSN: In pass defense it means really no difference as he's not part of the nickel package and he's seldom

ever used in coverage. He's a run stopping specialist only and he only plays maybe a third of the defensive snaps in obvious run situations. As for stopping the run it's a loss, but Curtis Lofton and David Hawthorne are by far the most trusted and critical linebackers for tackling and making plays. He's been a nice veteran presence and leader in the group, but I don't think this really represents a huge loss. Ramon Humber is a young linebacker that plays the run physically and well, and Will Herring is a guy that can come in and cover a little bit. The Saints should be ok with this loss. Don't get me wrong, I'd obviously prefer to have him, especially against a run heavy team that has a strong and powerful back.

HB: How has Roman Harper been playing in place of Kenny Vaccaro?

TSN: He hasn't really. Vaccaro is a hybrid safety and he played some safety this year for the Saints, but by and large he's been in the slot in a nickel role. He's really more of a slot corner so far. Harper and Vaccaro would switch off at strong safety depending on the game plan in base, but because so many teams run 3 receiver sets or more these days on the majority of snaps, they ended up both being on the field together (with Malcolm Jenkins at free safety). So the Saints have had 3 safeties on the field. With the Vaccaro injury (as well as injuries to starting corners Jabari Greer and Patrick Robinson), the Saints will keep Jenkins and Harper as the safeties in base, then move Jenkins to nickel in pass situations. You'll remember Jenkins was a corner coming out of Ohio State and he does a solid job covering the slot. A matchup with him against Percy Harvin would certainly be one to exploit, though. Rafael Bush then comes in as the free safety and replaces Jenkins in his base role. So it's really Jenkins that's covering for Vaccaro, though Harper does assume some of his responsibilities. Vaccaro could do so many things that now that has to be split up among a few players a little bit. Harper can play the run well but he is pretty poor in coverage. One on one with a tight end he can absolutely be exposed and opposing teams often target him. Rafael Bush, on the flipside, has been pretty solid at free.

HB: Did Saints fans like what Sean Payton did the team's practice field, painting a Seahawks logo on there?

TSN: No real opinion, that is just classic Sean Payton. The fans find it slightly amusing and just chalk it up to "Sean being Sean". He's very creative with his motivating tactics and I have to give him credit for never repeating the same thing twice. He will always come up with random and off the wall ideas as a way to motivate the troops. I think not knowing what to expect on any given week is an effective way to get a message across and make sure guys are focused and paying attention. Some ideas have worked better than others over the years but he's never afraid to think outside the box, a quality I really appreciate in him.

HB: What gives you the most confidence heading into this rematch? What makes you most worried?

TSN: I don't know how confident we can be after what happened last time. But there is a sense of "house money" at this point. Look, the expectations before that Seattle road game were squarely "Super Bowl or bust" for the fanbase. After that loss, and the road loss to Carolina, expectations had to be re-adjusted. All of a sudden the Saints went from a possible 1 or 2 seed, to the 6 seed looking awful on the road and needing three straight road wins, IN JANUARY, to get to the Super Bowl. Oh, and the Super Bowl is in New York. So that doesn't really stack up as a path the Saints are built to navigate. I think most Saints fans are realistic about that. So anyway, the franchise had never won a road playoff game ever and beating the Eagles in Philadelphia was a big historical win for the franchise. I think fans feel good that the team accomplished something historical this season. That's special, and a huge monkey off our back. Based on that, the season could end in Seattle and we could all live with it. Sure, we'd be disappointed, but it wouldn't leave long lasting emotional scars like a loss in Philly would have. So from a confidence standpoint the Saints can play loose, they have nothing to lose at this point. Seattle is a very good team that's even better at home, and the Saints are 8.5 point underdogs. Everyone expects them to get skull dragged. And yet this is still the #4 offense and #4 defense in the entire NFL. This team can play. So I have confidence in the recent form and the ability to play free.

Most worried? I guess the Seattle defense. The Saints put up 7 points last time and you can't win scoring that low. And this time they are calling for 100% chance of rain and 20mph winds. So scoring doesn't get any easier. Seattle is better at stopping the run and better at running the football than the Saints, so if this turns into a throwback style game the advantage is squarely with Seattle. Not that it wasn't already.

HB: If Percy Harvin plays, how do you think the Saints will try to defend him?

TSN: Keenan Lewis is a top notch corner and he'd man up one on one with him most likely. He left the Eagles game with a concussion but he had held DeSean Jackson deep into the 3rd quarter without a single catch. Once he left, Jackson immediately caught a 40 yard pass, and later got a 40 yard pass interference penalty. Lewis being out changed the whole complexion of the game. Lewis is practicing and he's been cleared to go. So I wouldn't be surprised if Lewis is manned up on Harvin wherever he goes. I'm hoping we'll see a little rust from Harvin, though. I'm also hoping the horrid weather we're expecting will stop Harvin all by itself. It certainly makes game planning more simple if both teams aren't really able to pass much.

HB: When you heard Harvin might play, what was your first reaction?

TSN: I actually hope he plays. I know Seahawks fans think he's like this larger than life missing piece to the Seahawks scoring 80 points every week, but as much time as he's missed this year I think he'll be a bit rusty. I know he played well in his first game back and people point to Crabtree's return, but every player is different, and every game is different. Seattle's offense has operated all season without him, and it takes time to get into a rhythm. I think Harvin may confuse the Seahawks' offensive identity a little bit, hopefully, especially with any rust he has. It's one thing to practice a little bit, but game speed under the lights takes time to get acclimated to. Of course he's such a special player and he's so explosive there's always the chance he'll go nuts for three scores and put up 180 yards on us. But the Saints' have the 4th best defense in the NFL. Honestly I can't picture many scenarios where their performance would be worse than what we saw in Seattle a month ago regardless of who plays. My only point is it's not a given that his first game back he's going to turn Seattle into this unstoppable offense, and there might even be some growing pains. Of course, he may go off too. I'm hoping for the former.

HB: What surprised you most in the first game between these two teams?

TSN: Russell Wilson's play. I knew he was very good, but he looked like the second coming of Steve Young in that game. The Saints held Lynch to 16 carries for 45 yards. If you had given me those stats before the game I would have guessed there was no chance the score would be 34-7 Seattle. I would have liked our chances. But Seattle was able to move the chains on 3rd and long with Wilson's ability to scramble and make throws downfield. It was really and truly impressive. Wilson was accurate, decisive and flat out awesome. If the Saints are able to slow Lynch down as well as they did last time, which is a tall task, I guess we just have to hope that Wilson will come back down to earth a little bit. Of course I was also shocked to see the Saints put up 7 points. I know the Seahawks defense is special, maybe on par with the Ravens' Super Bowl heyday defense, but I didn't expect them to utterly embarrass the Saints who are no slouches offensively.

My parting thoughts are that everything that could go wrong did go wrong for the Saints in that game. 3 and out, Hawks field goal. 3-0. Next drive, turnover for a touchdown. 10-0. 3 and out, punt, touchdown Seattle on the next drive. 17-0. That sequence was in the 1st quarter alone and the game was over before it started. The Saints have to avoid the early onslaught of getting blown out of the game from kickoff again. If they can survive the early crowd intensity and opening drives and avoid being down multiple scores 10 minutes in, then I think they can play their way into the game and make it competitive. So that will be key.

Percy Harvin's Return May Be An NFL First

Thursday, January 9, 2014

Walter Jones was named a finalist for the NFL Hall of Fame today. This was a player that was so thoroughly dominant on the field that few doubt his qualifications a player deserving of being inducted the first year he is eligible. Part of his legend was born off the field, and before any games were played. Jones would famously miss as much training camp as possible after the team placed the franchise tag on him, and return just before the season. Most players need camp to get in shape and regain their rhythm. Jones was not most players. Defenders flailed hopelessly against Jones no matter their preparation or his. Seahawks fans are hoping Percy Harvin has a little bit of Jones in his make-up after hearing he will return to the lineup after missing nearly all of the past 23 games due to various injuries. Simply stepping on the field may be a moment never before witnessed in the NFL.

Ray Lewis made deer antler spray famous last season while returning from a torn triceps suffered in week six of the season to play in the Ravens Super Bowl run. His teammate, Terrell Suggs, ruptured his Achilles tendon in the off-season and made a miraculous comeback just five months later to play in eight regular season games and all four playoff games. Both these players did something amazing, and returned to help make their team stronger for the stretch run. Neither did what Harvin is aiming to do.

There is no comprehensive and efficient way to search the annals of NFL injury history, but it is hard to imagine a player who was coming off an injury has ever been acquired during the off-season, proceeded to sustain another injury that caused them to miss all but a few snaps of a single game, and then play their first full game for the new team in the playoffs. If there has been a situation like that, I'd bet it was not a player of Harvin's caliber, who warranted MVP consideration the year prior. These are uncharted waters.

Terrell Owens broke his leg and torn a ligament in his right ankle in his first season with the Eagles just seven weeks before the Super Bowl XXXIX. He shocked the medical community by making it back for the big game, and nearly helped the Eagles to victory. If he had, perhaps Tim Ruskell would not have been suckered into trading for what became Super Bowl MVP Deion Branch, but I digress. Owens comeback was remarkable, but he had played 14 games for the Eagles that season, piling up 1,200 yard receiving and 14 touchdowns.

Harvin has one catch and one kick return. Owens almost had more touchdowns that season than Harvin does snaps in Seattle. This is history in the making.

It is, though, more than a circumstantial oddity. No team--not even the Seahawks--know what to expect from Harvin in a Seahawks uniform. He may be the biggest acquisition in the history of the NFL, the biggest bust, or anywhere in between. Seattle may use him on deep patterns. They may exclusively use him on wide receiver screens and crossing routes. They may line him up in the back-field. Sure, the few snaps he got in the game against Minnesota offers some clues, but that was clearly a game where he was being held back. Pete Carroll, Harvin and teammates insist that will not be the case on Saturday.

That cannot be fun for Rob Ryan. Michael Crabtree made it back from an Achilles tendon injury of his own, and has made the 49ers a much better offense. There was already film on him in that offense. Opponents may not be happy to see him back, but they know what to expect from him. Ryan may want to pull up some 2009 tape of Harvin in Minnesota as a rookie running Darrell Bevell's system. Then again, he may not. Harvin was used in a variety of ways while collecting six touchdowns through the air and two touchdowns on kickoff returns.

Putting their best corner, Keenan Lewis, on Harvin will mean Doug Baldwin and Golden Tate will be covered by someone else. Putting Lewis on Tate, means Harvin will be matched up against a nickel corner for a team that is already missing two corners. Keep in mind, Tate led all receivers in the NFL in yards after catch at 7.9 (min 15 receptions). Harvin led all receivers in that stat last year at 8.7. Good luck with that.

Just weeks ago, it would have been foolish to consider the Harvin trade successful to that point. There is now real opportunity for him to help the team accomplish their ultimate goal. Stories like that are why we watch this game.

Most Badass Seahawk

Thursday, January 9, 2014

Mike Sando wrote a terrific article today about just how badass Kam Chancellor is. Sando details a series of separate occurrences demonstrating just how much of an intimidating force Chancellor is on the field. My favorite of these came in the last game of the season versus the Rams when QB Kellen Clemens was scrambling in the fourth quarter and caught Chancellor out of the corner of his eye. He flashed his hand in the air in Chancellor's direction to wave him off as he quickly dropped into a slide. Chancellor called it a "smart decision," while the Seahawks sideline was in hysterics. That is the kind of team Pete Carroll and John Schneider have built. That is part of why they are so fun to cheer for. I decided to have a little extra fun and grade who exactly is the biggest badass on the roster. As is always the case with these indexes, there is no scientific or statistical evidence to back it up. It's just fun. That said, I'm pretty partial to my list, and would love to hear how your list might compare.

Being a badass is about more than just being a big hitter. Winston Guy laid a big hit on Stephen Williams during the training camp scrimmage this year. It was more chicken shit than badass. There is something intangible about men who intimidate other men. You can be strong and big, but not be as tough as a much smaller man. One of the great parts of football is seeing the difference between the predators and the prey.

I picked out a few criteria for what I think makes a badass football player, and weighted each category in order to come up with an index score. I only graded a handful of players off the current roster that I thought merited consideration. Not appearing on the list doesn't mean the player is weak. It just means they didn't jump to the top of my mental list of intimidating Seahawks.

SIZE - How big is the guy? (15%)

APPEARANCE - Does he look mean? (10%)

DEMEANOR - Does he act mean, tough? (20%)

HITTING - How many hours in the cold tub for his opponents after playing him? (25%)

ALLEY - If you met this guy in an alley at night, how would you like your chances? (10%)

GREATNESS - A player has to be good at what they do for any of the rest of it to matter. (20%)

To the results!

As much as I love Chancellor, it did not surprise me to see Marshawn Lynch top the charts. Kam is a badass hitter, but he's such a nice guy and so clean-cut. He really gets hurt by his alley score because my guess is he'd probably be just as likely to let you walk away as he would be to knock you down. Have you seen that smile? This guys seems pretty chill off the field. Thankfully, he is anything but on it.

A surprise to be so high on the list might be Tony McDaniel. I watched that guy all through training camp, and let me tell you, he is a mean man. He looks mean with his helmet off and with it on. This is just about the last guy you want angry with you. And he's played damn good football this year to boot.

Bruce Irvin may also be a surprise, but don't forget how much he has come through. There may not be a tougher guy on the team in terms of where he has been. He gets held back on the Badass Index by his lack of dominant on-field performance so far. Fix that, and we have a serious contender for the crown.

Michael Bowie is one to watch. He played with great toughness this year, and is guy I have high hopes for both as a player and as a badass.

He may want to be careful, though, because the guy whose job he may take, J.R. Sweezy has a history of pretty crazy behavior back in college that earns him some high marks here.

A lot of the guys lower on the list are either too small or too nice to be high-ranking badasses. Even so, they all earn a spot on the list. Not everyone can be #1.

Podcasts Of The Week

Talking Saints, Seahawks, and Playoffs With Jacson And Davis

Saturday, January 4, 2014

We have an opponent, Seahawks fans! A familiar one. That was reason enough to spend some time talking with friends and Seahawks experts Jacson Bevens and Davis Hsu. We covered a variety of topics in nearly 60 minutes, including the ailing Seahawks offense, third down efficiency, what the Saints bring to the table, and what we expect from Percy Harvin. Hope you enjoy it!

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Seahawks Vs Saints Playoff Previews With Softy

Thursday, January 9, 2014

Softy and I took twenty-plus minutes to go over the match-up with the Saints, what it means to get Percy Harvin back and how the crowd can be an even bigger factor on Saturday. Listen up!

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Hawk Talk