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Hawkblogger Weekly

2013 - Week 17

Table of Contents

The Cowboy Way

Friday, December 27, 2013

Pete Carroll grew up in the NFL during the 80s and 90s. He saw dynasties built with strong running games, dominating defenses and a passing game that filled in the gaps. It should come as little surprise that his current Seahawks team is following a trail blazed by one of the dynasties of that age. What may be somewhat surprising is that it is not the 49ers teams that he was a part of, but instead, the Jimmy Johnson's Cowboys.

People remember the 1990s Cowboys for their three Super Bowl victories, Johnson's impenetrable hairdo, Troy Aikman's All-American play and image, and Emmit Smith. Many people picture Aikman as a prolific franchise quarterback like the John Elway's and Dan Marino's of that era. The truth is, while Elway was throwing for 4000+ yards and 35 attempts per game, Aikman was leading a much more balanced offense that started with Smith and that dominating offensive line.

Their defenses featured imposing pass rushers like Charles Haley and eventually a shutdown corner in Deion Sanders. There were no game-breaking receivers, but there were players like Michael Irvin that ran terrific routes and made tough catches in traffic.

Back in 1990, they finished 7-9. The following season, they went 11-5 and won their first road playoff game in 11 years before losing in the divisional round on the road. In 1992, they lost an important divisional game to the Redskins just weeks before the end of the regular season. They went on to finish 13-3 and win the Super Bowl, beating their bitter rival, the 49ers along the way.

Sound familiar?

*one game left The Seahawks won their first road playoff game last season for the first time in nearly 30 years. They lost in the divisional round, and are looking to rebound from a tough divisional loss to go 13-3 this year. Both teams counted San Francisco as their chief competition.

The similarities between that 1992 Cowboys squad and the 2013 Seahawks doesn't end there.

Both teams were nearly identical in points per game, points allowed, yards per play for and against and point differential. And let's not forget that both teams featured Ken Norton Jr.

Should Seattle realize their potential this season, they will have youth and talent similar to that of the 92 Cowboys. This is a group that has already mimicked so much of how that Cowboys squad approached the game to largely the same result. This weekend is their next chance to follow in the footsteps of a champion.

Percy Harvin Contract Explained

Saturday, December 28, 2013

Former sports agent Joel Corry spent a few minutes explaining some details of Percy Harvin's contract that I had not previously understood. In the interest of keeping Seahawks fan informed, I will share what I learned, as well as some thoughts on the significance of it.

First, let's get acquainted with the different types of guaranteed money in an NFL contract. I had always thought money was either guaranteed, or it wasn't. Not true. There is fully guaranteed money, but there are also guarantees that can be restricted to injury, cap or skill. I found a decent explanation of the differences over at NYJetsCap.com:

Fully guaranteed money is the real deal. That means your money is protected from skill, injury, and cap terminations. For you to not earn that money you have to do something egregious to be cut and not paid. The most complete form is that with “no offset” meaning not only do you get paid from the team that cut you but any additional money you earn from another team that year is yours to keep. Most contain offset language meaning if the player has a $7 million dollar guarantee and signs with a new team for $2 million you are only on the hook for $5 million in cap and cash dollars.

Often times reported guarantees are not fully guaranteed. Normally they just contain protection for 1 of the 3 termination reasons. So if you are protected from injury but don’t get hurt that injury guarantee was worth nothing. You have a skill guarantee but the teams cap is awful you are out of luck. You will never see a roster or workout bonus guaranteed for all 3 terminations upon signing, due to rules in the CBA treating them as a prorated bonus. In my mind the skill guarantee is the best of the three to have because it’s the most subjective but that’s just my opinion on it.

Corry passed along that Harvin's deal is injury guaranteed for 2014. That means that if he was injured at the end of this league year (6 days after the Super Bowl), his $11M base salary for 2014 becomes guaranteed. A number of different media sources reported this week that the Seahawks would not put Harvin on IR because it would guarantee his 2014 contract. This is what they were referring to.

When Seattle cut Perrish Cox yesterday instead of putting Harvin on IR, this would appear to be the reason. It likely has nothing to do with leaving open the chance for Harvin to return this season. Pete Carroll has grown increasingly terse with his responses to Harvin questions, and this could be part of the reason. The coach likely is ready to turn the page and use Harvin's roster spot, but the front office may be insisting that the Seahawks keep their options open.

In literal terms, this means Seattle could choose to cut Harvin after the Super Bowl and recoup his 2014 salary. They would still owe the pro-rated portion of his signing bonus, which would count as dead money against the cap.

In real world terms, this means very little. Seattle will not cut Harvin after paying him $14M for one catch and one kick return. They want to see a return on their fiscal and draft pick investment. Still, keeping their options open is worthy of note. It gives the team leverage, but with no clear reason to use it. Most likely, this allows them to keep options open in case they hear something that causes them to question to long-term prospects of the Harvin deal. An escape valve nobody expects them to use.

NFC West Champion Gear Available

Sunday, December 29, 2013

The folks over Fanatics have your NFC West Champion gear available for those that want to have something to remember each step with. Below are a few of the items, including a plaque, cap and hoodie.

CLICK HERE to check out the selection, or on any of the images below.

Seahawks Control Super Bowl Path

Beat Rams 27-9

Sockeye salmon are all driven by the same goal when returning to spawn. They come en masse with a singular focus. Not all can make it. The obstacles in their path are varied and unrelenting. A Scooby-Doo trap is less convoluted than the path a salmon must follow. The journey changes them. Going from salt water to fresh water causes physical transformations. You would not recognize a sockeye that entered the mouth of the river when he reaches the spawning ground. Only the most cunning, determined, strong, and lucky reach their goal. Some will get their scars from propellers or seals. Others will have hooks and fishing line adorning them. The pain, the adversity, the cumulative experience of their lives do not occupy their mind. Only the goal. Seattle is not the team it was when it started the year. Injuries, experience, wins, and losses, have changed the names on some of the jerseys, and the players inside of them. They have traveled a great distance, bested nearly every obstacle, and seen their peers lessen in number. The challenges that lay in front of them are different than the ones behind them, but the journey has prepared them to finish what they started. Your Seattle Seahawks are NFC West Champions and #1 in the NFC, but their gaze remains fixed on the goal in front of them.

It seems a lifetime ago when Seattle was fighting the heat in Carolina, and fans were sweating out a game they expected to be easier. There was Stephen Williams barely missing a diving catch, D'Anthony Smith playing on the defensive line, and Mike Person playing the third tight end. There was also Doug Baldwin making a miraculous sideline catch, Jermaine Kearse hauling in a gorgeous deep pass, and Earl Thomas chasing down DeAngelo Williams for a game-saving forced fumble. Some things changed. Some endured.

The Seahawks exited the game against the Rams with lingering questions about the offense, but the defense has left little doubt the past few weeks about who is the best in the NFL. They end the season best in a variety of measures, ranging from fewest points allowed (14.4 ppg) to fewest yards allowed (273.6) to most takeaways (39). There was a time when Seattle allowed 405 yards rushing in back-to-back weeks and the talking heads latched onto the idea that they were vulnerable to the run. In the seven games since, Seattle has allowed 82.8 yards rushing per game, good for third-best in the NFL over that span. That includes a spectacular game against a Rams team that had entered Sunday as the second-best rushing team in football the last eight games.

The 13 rushing yards allowed tied a Seahawks record, and the 0.7 YPC set one

Over that seven game span where they had the third-best rush defense in the NFL, they were allowing opposing quarterbacks a microscopic 54.9 passer rating, leading the NFL in takeaways with 18, and allowing just 11.7 points per game. Mind you, this was all happening while the rest of the NFL was setting scoring records every weekend.

Some of the challenges on offense have stolen attention from a defense that was taking the step from great to elite. The post-season could cement them as a historic unit, something I will dig into more later in the week.

Bobby Wagner stands out as a player who has stepped up his game significantly over that time. He had 9+ tackles only once in his first six games. He finished with at least 9 tackles in each of his last eight games. This was the player I saw in training camp that I thought could be an All-Pro this season. His battery mate, Malcolm Smith has sparkled in relief of injured starter K.J. Wright. Smith had a tackle for loss and pick-six on the first series versus the Rams. He has at least one tackle for loss in each of the last four games, and has an interception in his last two. I've seen some suggest he should take the starting role from Bruce Irvin when/if Wright returns this year. Smith is a great weakside linebacker. That is his natural spot. If there was going to be a battle at Irvin's strongside position, it would be between Wright and Irvin. It is possible Smith could force that conversation, but Irvin is playing very good football, even if his numbers do not jump off the page.

The defensive line has been masterful. So much talk focuses on edge lineman and the LEO position, but it has been the interior lineman that have stood out. Michael Bennett finishes as the team leader in sacks with 8.5. Clinton McDonald had zero sacks in his first 37 career games, and 5.5 in his last 15. Tony McDaniel is probably the least recognized aspect of what has become a dynamic defensive tackle rotation. He was completely unblockable at the start of Sunday's game. Not only did he stuff multiple runs, but he was the pressure in Kellen Clemons face that led to the Smith interception return. Brandon Mebane has played his most complete season. He has worn down in prior years, but seems more fresh at this late date than I ever remember. Red Bryant is an end, but belongs in the conversation based on his responsibilities, and he played one his best games of the season against the Rams while nursing a sore knee.

And we haven't even talked about the secondary yet. Legion, indeed. Byron Maxwell has four interceptions in five starts, good for 11th in the NFL.

Richard Sherman finishes the year with two more interceptions than any other player despite being thrown at 3rd-fewest in the NFL

Earl Thomas set his career-high for tackles in a season, tied his career high for interceptions and was nearly perfect from the jump. Kam Chancellor had more legal body denting hits versus the Rams than any player in recent memory. Oh, and they are all 25 or younger and under contract for next season.

This was a scintillating performance by a defense that has enjoyed a season of them. Their next proving ground is the harsh light of post-season football. They may be good enough to carry even a troubled offense all the way to New York.

Russell Wilson and that offense took a small step forward against the Rams. The 111 yards rushing for the Seahawks may seem paltry, but the Rams have been the best rushing defense in the NFL over the last seven weeks. Only one other team has topped 100 yards on the ground against them since week nine. Seattle earned those yards with some great blocking by their line, but what stood out was the re-emergence of fullback Michael Robinson. His work with Marshawn Lynch was some of the best on the day. When snap counts are released, expect Robinson's numbers to have jumped back up to 30%+ of the offensive snaps. That number could grow even greater with the injury to Luke Willson, which will reduce the use of two-tight end formations.

Darrell Bevell also recommitted himself to getting the ball in Golden Tate's hands. It worked. Short passes led to longer gains, and the connection between Wilson and Tate was rediscovered. Sometimes the pump has to be primed. Kudos to Bevell for force-feeding this without taking unnecessary risks.

Wilson played a better game, but was under more real (as opposed to self-inflicted) pressure versus the Rams. He rarely got a chance to set his feet at the top of his drop, and took some big hits. Russell Okung looked like his toe was giving him fits. That will be something to watch over the next two weeks. The team can only hope that rest will do him good. Alvin Bailey subbed for him late and did his normal good work.

Doug Baldwin was a forgotten man with only one target that was thrown well over his head on the first series. Take it as an aberration. Jermaine Kearse watched as Bryan Walters took his snaps, and Ricardo Lockette had what is becoming his customary one catch. Lockette deserves credit for embracing a special teams role. Rumor was that the last time he was in Seattle, he showed little interest in special teams. A trip on the edge of the NFL seems to have helped him see that helping the team in any way is better than helping it no way.

The Seahawks now enjoy a two-week break from the pounding of a game. Players can always use the rest for their bodies, and coaches like Pete Carroll and Tom Cable can use the time to self-scout and examine opponent tendencies. Football is a game of moves and counter-moves. Opponents made changes to how they were playing the Seahawks in recent weeks, and Seattle found some success with their counter-moves this week. There is plenty more to come. The Seahawks have faced four of the NFL's best defenses in the last five weeks. Those challenges have armored them for the challenges in front of them. The best defense, though, resides in the Great Northwest. While Seattle remains focused on the goal ahead, the rest of the NFC must swim through our neck of the woods. Danger lurks around every bend. The odds do not favor their survival.

Final 2013 Hawk Blogger Power Rankings

Monday, December 30, 2013

This Week

For the second straight season, the Seahawks finish with the top spot in the power rankings. Denver finishes second for back-to-back seasons as well. And San Francisco finishes fourth again. Remarkable consistency for a parity-drive league. You can check out the final rankings from 2012 here.

The formula proved pretty accurate at predicting playoff teams yet again. By week three, 7 of 10 teams in the top ten made the playoffs, and 9 of the top 13. By week four, 8 of the top 10 teams were playoff qualifiers, and 10 of the 12 playoff teams were among the top 15. This is why I trust the numbers more than subjective expert picks.

The lowest ranked team in week four to make the playoffs was the then-23rd-ranked Eagles. Just like the Packers now, it is hard for the numbers to reflect drastic personnel changes like Aaron Rodgers returning does not erase all the weeks of him being absent, even if it makes the team that much better right now. Same for Nick Foles being inserted as a full-time starter much later in the season.

San Francisco boasts a far higher ranking than the Packers, but the difference has to be much less with Rodgers back in. Green Bay reached a Team Strength as high as 20.7 before Rodgers was injured, not far off the 49ers 24.2 right now.

On to the playoffs...

Note: If you are having problems viewing the rankings below, try this link. (Leave a comment if it doesn't work for you!)

This view helps to give you a view of how teams are grouped together. You will generally see tiers of strength develop as the season wears on.

Rankings Explained

Power rankings are always debatable. I don't buy into the gut feel methods most places use to determine their rankings, so I developed a formula a few years back that attempts to take at least some of the subjectivity out of the discussion. My approach was simple, I measured offensive and defensive efficiency based on the Yards Per Carry (YPC) and Yards Per Attempt (YPA), as well as points scored and points allowed. The formula to calculate "Team Strength" was as follows:

(YPC (offense) + YPA (offense) + Avg Pts/Game Scored) - (YPC (defense) + YPA (defense)+ Avg Pts/Game Allowed)

The formula has proven to be a pretty accurate predictor of success, but I am always looking for ways to improve it. I read a great article on ColdHardFootballFacts.com. There was one gem in there about predicting championship teams. The article mentioned passer rating differential as the "mother of all stats." A full 69 of 72 champions have ranked in the Top 10 in this statistic. It is a stat after my own heart, as I believe offensive and defensive efficiency is the key measurable outside of point differential. Turnovers would factor in there as well, but I am not convinced a team has as much control over that. My power rankings use YPA and YPC differentials. I went ahead and replaced the YPA with offensive and defensive passer rating, to give me this:

(YPC (offense) + Passer Rating (offense) + Avg Pts/Game Scored) - (OPP YPC (defense) + OPP Passer Rating (defense)+ OPP Avg Pts/Game)

Carroll and Schneider Try For Rare Super Bowl Feat

Monday, December 30, 2013

Black Monday in the NFL claimed a number of victims today as five coaches were fired. Whoever gets the opportunity to lead those teams will have at least some talent to build with. Each of the teams with a vacant head coaching position has at least one 2013 Pro Bowl player on their roster. Some, like the Tampa Bay Bucs, have multiple Pro Bowl players and a stable of promising young talent that could reach the Pro Bowl in the future. Many coaches are crowned as kings for coming into a team with pre-existing talent and getting the most out of them. Jim Harbaugh, for example, inherited all eight of his 2013 Pro Bowl players. The team was not winning before he arrived, but the talent was in place to be great. Pete Carroll and John Schneider are taking a road less traveled. The team they inherited in 2010 was coming off a season where there were no Pro Bowl players on the roster, and only one of their current Pro Bowl players, Max Unger, was even on the roster when they arrived. Should they eventually lead the Seahawks to a Super Bowl, this year, or in the future, they will become just the second front office to complete such a drastic turnaround.

There have been 47 Super Bowls and 18 different teams that have won. Based on the information I could find on Pro-Football-Reference.com, the only Super Bowl winner to come from a front office that inherited a similar situation to what Carroll and Schneider took on was Ron Wolf and Mike Holmgren in Green Bay. They won the Super Bowl in 1996, but the roster they inherited in 1992 was coming off a season without any Pro Bowl players. And, the only player on that 1991 roster they took over that eventually become a Pro Bowl player for that 1996 championship team was LeRoy Butler.

I scoured the rosters of each of the Super Bowl winners looking for: players that made the Pro Bowl the year before the new front office arrived, and Pro Bowl players from the Super Bowl winning year that were on the roster when they arrived, but had not reached that status yet.

The 2001 Patriots with Bill Belichick were close, but Lawer Milloy was a Pro Bowl players when he arrived, and played on the championship team. Troy Brown and Ty Law were also on the roster, and became Pro Bowl members of the 2001 squad.

Bill Parcells 1986 Super Bowl team in New York had a roster that already included names like Lawrence Taylor and Harry Carson before he arrived.

Mike Ditka won a championship in 1985 with the Bears, but Walter Payton and Gary Fencik were existing Pro Bowlers and a guy named Mike Singletary was already in tow.

The 1992 Cowboys completely overhauled their roster when Jimmy Johnson arrived in 1989, leading to a dismal 1-15 record one season. Even Johnson, though, had Herschel Walker on the squad when he got there, and a young trio of Nate Newton, Michael Irvin, and Ken Norton Jr. ready to blossom.

Joe Gibbs had Joe Theismann, Art Monk, Mike Nelms and Mark Mosley there when he arrived before eventually winning in 1982.

The perfect 1972 Dolphins were led by Hall of Fame coach Don Shula. He had a Pro Bowler named Jim Kiick on the roster when he got there, and three guys that would grow into Pro Bowlers that championshop season in Larry Csonka, Mercury Morris and Dick Anderson.

There are four players on the current Seahawks roster that were around in 2009 before Carroll arrived: Jon Ryan, Max Unger, Brandon Mebane and Red Bryant. Only Unger has made the Pro Bowl. Mebane has an outside chance at All-Pro consideration, and deserves it, but is unlikely to be recognized for his work.

Almost every core piece of the a team many consider the odds-on favorite to win the Super Bowl this season was added by the two men leading the team right now. Where most coaches and general managers come into an apartment and renovate, Carroll and Schneider moved into a crack house, tore it down to the studs, and built a luxury high rise.

The time it would take to research how many front offices have even been able to take a roster without Pro Bowlers and become the #1 seed four years later is just too tedious with the tools available, but I'd wager the list is very short.

Carroll and Schneider do not need to win a Super Bowl to validate their accomplishment. What they have done to this point is remarkable in it's own right. Should they lead the team to a championship, they will have done something legends like Parcells, Shula, Belichick, Gibbs, Ditka and Johnson never did. Go ahead and give the Coach of the Year award to Andy Reid for taking a team that had six Pro Bowl players from 2012 already on the roster, and all of their eight 2013 Pro Bowlers, and leading them to second-place in the AFC West. Name guys like Ryan Grigson Executive of the Year for drafting Andrew Luck with the #1 overall pick while Schneider was busy getting Russell Wilson in the third round. Anyone who cares to take the time and really break down what Schneider and Carroll have done in four short years will see true award-winning work. A Super Bowl ring is certainly the best way to drive the point home.

Best Teams Heading Into Playoffs

Wednesday, January 1, 2014

A reader, Todd Huotari, had a good question about my power rankings. He saw the 1-week difference in team strength and the 3-week difference, but both of those are cumulative numbers. Knowing what Russell Wilson's passer rating was three weeks ago and what it is today can show a trend, but figuring out his passer rating just in the last three weeks tucks away past performance and allows you to see just how he is playing lately. That is what Huotari wanted to know, and he took the time to figure out using the my power rankings formula that I share each week. The results are interesting, and give a different perspective on which teams have been hottest heading into the playoffs.

As you can see, Denver, Indianapolis, Kansas City, and Cincinnati are all hot in the AFC. Only Philadelphia stands out in the NFC. Surprisingly, with all the hand-wringing about Seattle's slower finish, they have been the second-strongest team in the NFC the last three weeks by this ranking system. Time will tell if the hotter teams are the winning teams this weekend.

Final Seahawks 2013 Regular Season Progress Report

Wednesday, January 1, 2014

There are plenty of statistical sites on the web. HawkBlogger.com is largely a journal of everything going on with the Seahawks over time. There are times that statistics help to tell that story, and that is why I created this Season Progress Report series a couple years back. A gap in the statistics out there is the ability to freeze points in time, and allow you to rewind and compare how the team has progressed or regressed as the year rolls on. Player splits (e.g., first half of the year vs second half of the year) are common, but team splits are less so, and quarter-season splits can only be found here, from what I know. I track every Seahawks game, and have for years. That allows me to break down trends over any period of time I choose. As this season continues, I will provide a progress report at each quarter point of the year, and highlight other trends I see in-between.

PREVIOUS 2013 PROGRESS REPORTS

CHART GALLERY

Note: The abbreviation "OPP" appears in the charts below to reflect "opponent."

GENERAL CHECK-UP

SITUATIONAL PLAY

FOCUS ON PASS RUSH AND PASS PROTECTION

FOCUS ON TURNOVERS

Analysis

An offense that exploded in games 9-12, came back to Earth in the final four games of the season. The Seahawks had stepped forward in each aspect of offense that I measure in the last progress report, and have dropped in nearly all of them this time around. It is no coincidence that 3rd Down % dropped the same time as opponent sacks went up. The opposite was true in games 9-12. It is not as simple as the pass protection is breaking down, so the third downs are not being converted. It has been a struggle to gain yardage on early downs, leading to longer third down situations.

It is remarkable how well the Seahawks did on third down in the first quarter of the season given the long yardage they faced. That stretch included possibly their most amazing third down performance of the season when the Seahawks converted 46% of their third down tries that averaged 9.69 yard to go against a fantastic Carolina defense on the road. That was terrific, but not sustainable. Seattle needs to regain their form on early downs to make third down a more attainable conversion as they head into the post-season.

It is worth noting that while we dislike seeing the downward trend in the offense over four games, the trend becomes much less legible when the season is divided in two. The team averaged 25.6 ppg in the first eight games of the year and 26.5 in the last eight. They averaged 339.4 yards per game in the first eight, and 338.6 in the last eight. Those numbers suggest that the offense has not really grown or regressed much over the course of the season. They had ups and downs, but the overall body of work is pretty darn consistent.

One thing they cannot afford to continue is the drop in red zone play. Scoring a touchdown on less than half their red zone possessions will not cut it. The play-calling has been suspect there, and Russell Wilson's accuracy has been below his standards.

The defense has been making a progress all year. They have lowered their points allowed per game in each of the last three quarters of the year. Opponent explosive plays have gone down every quarter of the season. And red zone defense has been outstanding of late, allowing just 22% of possessions to result in a touchdown.

This is downright stingy stuff. One word of caution is the big uptick in takeaways the last four games. Takeaways are unpredictable, and while they can be influenced by a defense, it is not something they can control. A fair number of those takeaways came in the opponent end zone. Assuming that will continue is playing with fire.

Seattle can be most proud of the progress in the run defense over the last four games. They could have jumped even higher if the Frank Gore 51-yard run was not in there (in addition to all the subsequent runs on that drive). Even with that bust, the defensive line and linebackers have been playing their best ball of the season against the run. Bad news for Seattle's opponent is that run defense benefits more from rest than any other group. Fresh interior lineman are priceless. It is no accident that the Seahawks run defense took a step forward after the bye week.

This Seahawks team is not sprinting into the playoffs the way the 2012 team did, but there is a stability and seasoning to this group that separates them from their predecessor. The defense is spending less time trying to prove something to the outside world, and more time competing with history to see just how great they can be. Their attention to detail and focus on the task at hand is at a championship level. The offense has never quite found it's footing with the ever-changing cast on the offensive line. There were signs of real progress in the final game against the Rams. There is not a player on offense that cannot step up their level of play. The NFC playoff bracket is littered with dominant defenses. Having faced San Francisco, New York, Arizona and St. Louis in the last four games could prove to be the perfect practice gauntlet for the post-season.

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