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Hawkblogger Weekly

2013 - Week 11

Table of Contents

Russell Wilson Defies Doubters Yet Again

Sunday, November 17, 2013

Poor sophomores. Everyone assumes they are either immature, or destined for a slump. That was certainly the talk this NFL off-season as people evaluated the stellar quarterback class of 2012 as they entered their second seasons. No player was whispered about more than Russell Wilson. It did not matter that they had been wrong about his height a year earlier. The new reasons he would not succeed were his reliance on the read-option and improvisation. Oh, and just in case you had not heard, he is short. The poster boy for the dangers of believing too much in an improvisational quarterback was now-Vikings quarterback Josh Freeman. A look at how their careers have evolved shows, once again, that Wilson is walking his own path to NFL stardom.

Freeman had a modestly successful rookie year in 2009 for the Buccaneers. It was his 2010 season that sparkled. He threw 25 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions on his way to a 95.9 passer rating. His breakout year compared favorably to Wilson's.

When I would ask people to show me a quarterback that had failed after the type of success Wilson had, some would try to bring up Rick Mirer. In relative terms, that is a joke. Mirer never had a season that approached what Wilson did as a rookie. Mirer had a promising rookie year. Wilson had one of the greatest rookie seasons in NFL history. The tougher comparison to dispel was Freeman. Even if it was not his rookie year, it was his first full year starting and there was no doubt his 2010 season was in Wilson territory. He also had been known for making many of his throws outside the offense. When it worked, like in 2010, it was called creativity. Many questioned whether success based on non-rhythm throwing was sustainable. In Freeman's case, it has not been.

The first ten games of this season, Wilson has bordered on MVP-level numbers behind a battered offensive line. In doing so, he has left the cautionary tale of Josh Freeman in the rear-view mirror.

One of the lessons Seahawks coaches may have learned from Freeman's history is that a successful year for a young player does not necessarily mean the smart coaching move is to push more of the offense through that player. Freeman's attempts went up and his production went down. Wilson has been asked to do roughly what he was asked to do last year. Seattle still leans heavily on a rushing attack to reduce the load on the quarterback.

That, combined with Wilson's innate ability to throw the deep ball and find the end zone, has allowed Wilson to stand out among his sophomore quarterback brethren despite having fewer pass attempts.

Passing
Player G Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Int Rate Y/A
Andrew Luck 10 206 347 59.37% 2430 14 6 87.0 7.00
Robert Griffin III 9 205 337 60.83% 2450 12 9 83.8 7.27
Ryan Tannehill 8 182 303 60.07% 1998 13 10 80.2 6.59
Russell Wilson 10 163 257 63.42% 2132 17 6 101.8 8.30
Colin Kaepernick* 9 124 220 56.36% 1675 9 6 83.0 7.61
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/17/2013.

Wilson has more touchdowns than top three quarterbacks taken last year, is tied for fewest interceptions, and has the highest passer rating and yards per attempt by a long shot. It is worth noting that three of the four second-year players listed above have improved on their passer rating so far as sophomores. Only Robert Griffinn III has regressed, and most would equate his second-year slide to injury. Nick Foles has thrown himself into this group with a glowing second season that has him a hair behind Wilson in touchdowns (16), no interceptions and a nutso 132.5 rating. He was omitted from the table above because he entered this season with very modest expectations. Nobody was worried about a Nick Foles sophomore slump. The same could be said about Case Keenum and his 7 touchdown-to-zero interception second season.

Colin Kapernick was included even though this is his third season in the NFL, mainly because he was often lumped in with this group due to having his breakout season the same year. If any of these guys had a Freeman-like slump after their breakout year, it would be Kaepernick.

Wilson appears to be setting the stage for another big finish as his passer rating in the last four games has been a heady 116.5, with nine touchdowns against only two interceptions. Three of those four games have seen his rating over 117.

Analysts will continue to find reasons to question the pedigree of Russell Wilson. He will keep finding ways to make them look foolish. He is already among the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL. By the time this season ends, he may be in the debate for the best rookie year and best second year of any quarterback in NFL history. It does not take a genius to imagine the conversation if he continues that trend in future years.

Seahawks Head To The Bye In Style

41-20 Over Vikings

On Adrian Peterson's second carry from scrimmage, he ran to his right, and looked to be bottled up near the Seahawks sideline, only to cut back inside and find a gaping hole. He burst through and galloped 74 yards before Brandon Browner caught him at the 1-yard line. Just over a year later, Peterson took the ball 21 times and finished with nine fewer rushing yards on the day (65) than he had gained in that single run. He has played in 99 games over seven years, and only two other times has he finished with so few yards on so many carries. The final rushing totals for the Vikings do not begin to tell the story of how well the Seahawks run defense played against a determined opponent with Hall of Fame talent. Their young quarterback was playing well enough on this day that if the running game had found some footing, this could have been a much longer afternoon for the Seahawks. Instead, Brandon Mebane, Tony McDaniel, Red Bryant, Clinton McDonald, K.J. Wright, Kam Chancellor and Bobby Wagner deserve top billing for doing hard labor in a game most will remember for a more flashy debut.

That win over the Vikings last year was more pivotal than any of us knew at the time. It marked the beginning of a memorable second half of the season for Seattle. The Seahawks have gone 17-2 since that point in the regular season. The offense scored 30 points that day, and went on to average 34 points per game the last half of 2012. Some talked about that run as unlikely to be repeated. Seattle is averaging 33.7 ppg in the last three games to start the second half of 2013. In fact, the Seahawks are now the 4th-highest scoring offense in football at 27.8 ppg. They continue to show signs of recapturing the scoring magic that led them to such lofty heights at the end of last season.

Seattle is scoring on 56% of their drives in the second half of 2013 after scoring on just 39% of their drives the first eight games.

The formula involves a bruising rushing attack and a highly efficient passing attack that takes big chunks of yards. That the Seahawks were able to score 31 points without a lot of help from the running game Sunday is a testament to the growth of Russell Wilson and the receiving corps. The defense then quickly helped turned that into 41 points once blood was in the water.

Percy Harvin played his last game as a Viking in the same place he played his first game as a Seahawk. You could feel the caution from the coaching staff. They had to be conflicted about letting him play before the bye week. He was not even introduced with the starting offense, as if to send a message to the home crowd not to count on seeing him much. Whether that was their intent or not, it was how he was used. Harvin played a fair number of snaps, but was only thrown to twice, with one official target after the other was nullified due to off-setting penalties. There was no noticeable change to the offense in terms of play-calling.

Harvin is at his best on screens, crossing patterns, and swing passes, but there was none of that on Sunday. It was interesting to see how few targets all the receivers got in this game. Doug Baldwin only got two, but made the most of them with a 44-yard catch and yet another highlight reel catch for a touchdown before the half. Golden Tate was an afterthought with just four targets and one catch. He appeared to lose more snaps than other receivers with Harvin back, but it is hard to believe that will be the plan going forward. He is playing too well to reduce his playing time. A total of 10 players were targeted on just 21 total pass attempts. Distribution is great when trying to keep defenses off-balance, but Darrell Bevell must be careful not to allow defenses to keep the ball away from his best players. This team needs Harvin, Baldwin, Tate and Jermaine Kearse to get the bulk of the targets.

One player who is struggling to justify the reps he is getting is Robert Turbin. He lacks elusiveness as a runner, which would be okay if he was not going down on first contact so often. Pete Carroll has made it clear that Christine Michael is being held back by his lack of polish in the passing game in terms of blitz pickup and general pass protection. There is no credible case for saying Turbin is a better asset as a runner, which further reinforces the notion that this is about less glamorous jobs like pass blocking.

It has been eleven games now, fifteen if you include pre-season. At some point, this becomes about the coaches inability to get Michael prepared to take the field. Inserting yet another wildcard into the pass blocking while Russell Okung and Breno Giacomini and Max Unger were missing games probably did not make a lot of sense. Now that they are back, the Seahawks would be wise to start mixing Michael in more regularly. He is a weapon that could change a game. Turbin simply has not shown evidence that he is more than a solid back-up runner. One story line to follow will be whether coaches look to Harvin to take some snaps from Turbin. In any case, we should see less of Turbin the rest of the way if the coaches are looking to optimize this offense.

Speaking of pass protection, the Seahawks surrendered just one sack, which makes it three games in a row at one sack or less. The offensive line played okay against what looked to be an inspired Minnesota defensive line. I was not able to observe the substitution pattern, but did see James Carpenter and McQuistan swapping throughout the game. It was clearly a blow to Michael Bowie to go from 7th round pick to starter to inactive. Lynch showed part of what makes him a hidden leader on this team in how he handled it.

michael bowie tweet

The Seahawks are allowing 0.7 sacks per game the last three games after allowing 3.4 sacks per game in the first eight games

Tom Cable has some work to do to get this group humming again coming out of the bye with two tough match-ups. Line play is about continuity nearly as much as it is about talent. As great as it is to have Okung and Giacomini back, it will take some time for them to regain their form, and they don't have much time to do it.

No group of players will benefit more from the week off than the defensive line, and even more specifically, the defensive tackles. The same philosophy running teams have about pounding away at a defense in the first half of games to wear them down for the second half, applies in aggregate across the season. Even granite cracks eventually. There is no glory to be found in taking on multiple blockers or squeezing gaps, but guys like Bryant, Mebane and McDaniel do it game after game. Thank your neighborhood defensive lineman.

The defense, as a whole, is dragging a bit as they reach the bye. They are allowing 19 ppg over their last seven games, and have seen opponent 3rd down success, rushing success, and red zone success increase. If there is one group that has shown marked improvement the past two weeks, it would be the linebackers. Wagner is finally looking like the player we saw a season ago. He has had at least nine tackles in each of the past three games, and has added 2.5 sacks and an interception. He very easily could have had two interceptions on Sunday. His weakside counterpart, K.J. Wright had another monster game, matching Wagner's nine tackles and adding another tackle for loss. Those two needed to step up, and have done exactly that the past couple of weeks.

Eleven games into the season, Seattle has much to be thankful for. They are the best team in football, and will have a great chance to reinforce that truth against their next two opponents. No team had ever won 10 games or more in consecutive seasons in Seahawks franchise history until yesterday. Only six teams had reached 10 wins in 37 years of Seahawks football. This team, and this city, are walking an unspoiled path. We pause now to take in the sweeping views from high above the valley we have known all too well, knowing that the best views are still ahead.

2013 Power Rankings: Week 11

Tuesday, November 19, 2013

This Week

For the first time since Week 3, someone other than Denver owns the top spot in the rankings. Seattle rises to #1 on the strength of a solid margin of victory and league-best passer rating differential. The Broncos have been sliding slightly the past few weeks, while the Seahawks have been gaining ground. The Saints spot at #3 sets up a titanic battle once Seattle returns from the bye. Only three teams have strength ratings of 40 or more, and two of them will face-off in Seattle on Monday Night Football.

Elsewhere, the Cardinals cross over into the land of positive rankings with their stretch of strong play. The Steelers join them. Meanwhile, Green Bay and Indianapolis sink near, or below, the zero barrier.

The Seahawks do not have any easy games left on the schedule, or at least as easy as they might have been a few weeks back. The Giants, Rams and Cardinals are all playing decent football.

Note: If you are having problems viewing the rankings below, try this link. (Leave a comment if it doesn't work for you!)

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RANK TEAM TEAM STRENGTH DIFF

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1 Seattle 49.7 4.8

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2 Denver 49.3 -2.7

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3 New Orleans 40.9 -2.6

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4 Carolina 25.8 0.9

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5 Kansas City 19.2 -5.2

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6 Philadelphia 18.5 0.8

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7 Cincinnati 17.4 4.5

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8 San Francisco 14.7 -4.1

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9 New England 11.1 -4.1

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10 Chicago 8.2 3.7

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11 Dallas 6 0

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12 Detroit 4.9 -6.9

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13 Tennessee 4.8 2.2

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14 Pittsburgh 3.5 6.5

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15 Miami 2.9 -0.5

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16 San Diego 1.9 0.1

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17 Arizona 0.9 7.5

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18 Green Bay 0.3 -4.4

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19 Indianapolis -0.9 -2.8

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20 St. Louis -6.6 0

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21 Buffalo -8 10.2

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22 Cleveland -10.5 -5.2

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23 Tampa Bay -15.1 8.3

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24 Baltimore -15.6 -2.4

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25 NY Giants -16.4 6.1

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26 Houston -18.2 -3

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27 Washington -23.8 -0.6

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28 Atlanta -25.2 -4.3

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29 Oakland -26.3 9.2

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30 NY Jets -33.5 -7.6

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31 Minnesota -35.2 -5.6

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32 Jacksonville -62.1 -0.5

This view helps to give you a view of how teams are grouped together. You will generally see tiers of strength develop as the season wears on.

Rankings Explained

Power rankings are always debatable. I don't buy into the gut feel methods most places use to determine their rankings, so I developed a formula a few years back that attempts to take at least some of the subjectivity out of the discussion. My approach was simple, I measured offensive and defensive efficiency based on the Yards Per Carry (YPC) and Yards Per Attempt (YPA), as well as points scored and points allowed. The formula to calculate "Team Strength" was as follows:

(YPC (offense) + YPA (offense) + Avg Pts/Game Scored) - (YPC (defense) + YPA (defense)+ Avg Pts/Game Allowed)

The formula has proven to be a pretty accurate predictor of success, but I am always looking for ways to improve it. I read a great article on ColdHardFootballFacts.com. There was one gem in there about predicting championship teams. The article mentioned passer rating differential as the "mother of all stats." A full 69 of 72 champions have ranked in the Top 10 in this statistic. It is a stat after my own heart, as I believe offensive and defensive efficiency is the key measurable outside of point differential. Turnovers would factor in there as well, but I am not convinced a team has as much control over that. My power rankings use YPA and YPC differentials. I went ahead and replaced the YPA with offensive and defensive passer rating, to give me this:

(YPC (offense) + Passer Rating (offense) + Avg Pts/Game Scored) - (OPP YPC (defense) + OPP Passer Rating (defense)+ OPP Avg Pts/Game)

Updated Seahawks Player Rankings 1-59

Wednesday, November 20, 2013

The bye week is a good time to revisit my player rankings of all 53 players on the Seahawks roster, plus a few key folks that are injured. In total, I have stack-ranked 59 Seahawks players, giving them scores on five key characteristics. You can always find these rankings in the Seahawks Player Rankings section of HawkBlogger.com.

As a reminder, the factors are as follows:

AGE - The younger, the better. Some positions, like RB, are more harshly rated as age is a larger factor.

HEALTH - This could also be called dependability as it encompasses injury and absences for other reasons like suspension. A player with a current injury is rated more harshly as their recovery is unknown.

IMPACT TO DATE - This is about how the player has performed on the field thus far through their career. What level of performance have they already demonstrated?

POTENTIAL GROWTH - How much better can they be than they are right now? A great player may not have much more room to grow.

HARD TO REPLACE - This combines a variety of considerations including: salary for that position type, scheme demands on that position, uniqueness of skill set for the player, and typical ability to find fill that position played in to that level in the NFL.

Not all of these factors are equal. It is far more important, for example, to have demonstrated your impact on the field than it is to be young or have potential. I weighted the factors to address this:

IMPACT TO DATE = 45%

HARD TO REPLACE = 25%

POTENTIAL GROWTH = 15%

AGE = 10%

HEALTH 5%

The formula looks like this:

(AGE*0.10) + (HEALTH*0.05) + (IMPACT TO DATE*0.45) + (POTENTIAL GROWTH*0.15) + (HARD TO REPLACE*0.25) = PLAYER SCORE

To the results!

results table

Seahawks 5-Year Roster Outlook Updated

Wednesday, November 20, 2013

It can be confusing trying to keep track of who is coming and who is going on the Seahawks roster. Specifically, who is under club control contractually, for how long, and when does everyone become an unrestricted free agent? I have created a page as a constant reference for players I believe are critical to track. You can find it on the 5-YR Roster Outlook section. Bookmark it! Here is the updated table in-line for your convenience.

LEGEND: SIGNED
CANNOT RENEGOTIATE DEAL
RESTRICTED FREE AGENT
UNRESTRICTED FREE AGENT
Position Player 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
QB Russell Wilson 24 25 26 27 28
RB Marshawn Lynch 27 28 29 30 31
RB  Robert Turbin 23 24 25 26 27
RB Christine Michael 22 23 24 25 26
FB Derrick Coleman 22 23 24 25 26
RB/FB Spencer Ware 22 23 24 25 26
Flanker (WR) Sidney Rice 27 28 29 30 31
Split End (WR) Golden Tate 25 26 27 28 29
Slot (WR) Percy Harvin 24 25 26 27 28
Slot (WR) Doug Baldwin 25 26 27 28 29
WR Jermaine Kearse 23 24 25 26 27
WR Ricardo Lockette 27 28 29 30 31
LT Russell Okung 26 27 28 29 30
LG James Carpenter 24 25 26 27 28
C Max Unger 27 28 29 30 31
RG Paul McQuistan 30 31 32 33 34
G J.R. Sweezy 24 25 26 27 28
RT Breno Giacomini 28 29 30 31 32
TE1 Zach Miller 27 28 29 30 31
TE2 Luke Willson 23 24 25 26 27
TE3 Kellen Davis 28 29 30 31 32
Left DE Red Bryant 29 30 31 32 33
DT Brandon Mebane 28 29 30 31 32
DT Tony McDaniel 28 29 30 31 32
DT Clinton McDonald 26 27 28 29 30
Rush DT Michael Bennett 27 28 29 30 31
Leo/SAM Cliff Avril 27 28 29 30 31
Leo Chris Clemons 32 33 34 35 36
SAM/Leo Bruce Irvin 26 27 28 29 30
LB K.J. Wright 24 25 26 27 28
MIKE (LB) Bobby Wagner 23 24 25 26 27
CB Richard Sherman 25 26 27 28 29
CB Brandon Browner 29 30 31 32 33
Nickel CB Walter Thurmond  25 26 27 28 29
SS Kam Chancellor 25 26 27 28 29
FS Earl Thomas 24 25 26 27 28
Punter Jon Ryan 31 32 33 34 35
Kicker Steven Hauschka 28 29 30 31 32
Long Snapper Clint Gresham 27 28 29 30 31
TOP RESERVES 
G/T Alvin Bailey 22 23 24 25 26
G/T Michael Bowie 21 22 23 24 25
CB Jeremy Lane 22 23 24 25 26
CB Byron Maxwell 25 26 27 28 29
Safety Jeron Johnson 25 26 27 28 29
LB O'Brien Schofield 26 27 28 29 30
LB Malcolm Smith 24 25 26 27 28
DT Jordan Hill 22 23 24 25 26
Leo/SAM Benson Mayowa 22 23 24 25 26
LB Heath Farwell 31 32 33 34 35
QB Tarvaris Jackson 30 31 32 33 34
NOTABLE IR PLAYERS
DT Jessie Williams 22 23 24 25 26
TE Anthony McCoy 25 26 27 28 29
CB Tharold Simon 22 23 24 25 26
DT/DE Greg Scruggs 22 23 24 25 26

Get Seahawks, Huskies, Ducks, Cougars Gear, Proceeds To Charity!

Thursday, November 21, 2013

We are not only nearing the end of the NFL season, but the end of another calendar year. That means it is almost time to add up any profits made here at HawkBlogger.com and donate them to Ben's Fund, a charity started by Seahawks GM John Schneider and his wife Tracy, to benefit parents who struggle to pay for expensive Autism treatments. We donated $1000 last year, and I'd love to do more this year. Come on Seahawks fans!!

There are great ways for you to contribute this holiday season, just by doing what you already need to do: Shop! The prices are all the same. The only difference is you click on the links below to get started.

HawkBlogger.com receives a portion of the proceeds when you click on one of the links below and purchase something. I then take that money and add it to the donation pile. You get to purchase your holiday gifts, and know that some of the money will go to a great charity. It should be a no-brainer.

11% of Proceeds Go To Charity From These Links:

4% of Proceeds To Charity From These Links:

You can shop for anything at Amazon.

Start Your Holiday Shopping Here
And 4% Of Sales Go To Charity

Seahawks Receivers Anything But Average

Friday, November 22, 2013

Doug Baldwin and Golden Tate have publicly voiced their displeasure in recent weeks about the moniker that many pundits have bestowed upon the Seahawks receiving corps: average. The truth is, with the injury to Sidney Rice, the receiving crew is well below average in at least one important way; they are shorter than just about any group of receivers in the NFL. Take the top one-hundred receivers in the NFL this year, based on receiving yards or receiving touchdowns, and their average height is 6'1". Limit it to the top twenty, and the average height rises to 6'2" and a weight of 211 pounds. The Seahawks have one active receiver that even meets that average of 6'2" and 211 pounds, Ricardo Lockette, and he happens to be at the bottom of the depth chart. In league where receivers and cornerbacks are getting taller and heavier, the Seahawks have once again charted an unconventional path to extraordinary results.

Pete Carroll loves to defy convention. He revels in it. But he has made no secret of his preference for tall receivers. One of the first players he brought in to help the Seahawks receiving corps in 2010 was his old behemoth, Mike Williams, all 6'5" of him. Then he and John Schneider opened up their pocket books for 6'4" Sidney Rice in free agency. Even when Rice recently was lost for the season, it was apparent how conflicted Carroll was about shifting the diminutive Baldwin into the vacant flanker spot on the outside. All Baldwin has done since getting that opportunity is catch 13 passes for 214 yards for a 16.5 average per reception and 2 touchdowns. If he were to maintain that pace for a full 16-game season, he would have 69 receptions for 1,141 yards and 11 TDs. People are just now realizing the proper comparison for Baldwin is not to Bobby Engram, but to Victor Cruz, and Baldwin's numbers imply he may be the better of the two players.

In Baldwin's two healthy seasons he has averaged 15.5 and 16.3 yards per catch. Cruz has only one season over 14.2 yards per catch. Baldwin has been incorrectly classified as a possession slot receiver where Cruz is thought of as the deep threat. The numbers do not support that perception.

Cruz has 65 explosive receptions (defined as 16+ yards) in his three years. That means 29% of his catches are of the explosive variety. That is nearly 1-in-3. Impressive. Take Baldwin's two healthy years in 2011 and 2013. He has 36 explosive receptions in those two seasons out of 87 total catches. That means 41% of his catches have been of the explosive variety. Perception? Meet reality.

Golden Tate checks in at 5'10", just like Baldwin, but he brings over 200 pounds of punishment with him. No receiver in the NFL has broken more tackles (29) the past two seasons than Tate, according to Pro Football Focus. He leads the NFL in yards after catch per reception at 8.7. That equals the number another mini-Seahawks receiver, Percy Harvin, posted during an MVP-type season last year. If all the short Seahawks receivers were Smurfs, Tate would have to be Playmaker Smurf (Baldwin would likely be Grumpy Smurf). Tate does not just take short passes and break tackles. He specializes in the deep ball.

Only eleven receivers in the NFL have caught more passes of 40+ yards in the last two seasons than Tate. Only three players, Torrey Smith, T.Y. Hilton and A.J. Green have caught more 40+ yard catches as a percentage of their total receptions the last two seasons (min 85 receptions).

Jermaine Kearse is the second of three undrafted free agents in the Seahawks receiving room. All Kearse has done is lead the NFL in percentage of catches resulting in a touchdown (min 10 receptions). Nearly 31% of the time Kearse touches the ball, Steven Hauschka is trotting on the field after to him for a PAT. And these are not little slant routes or fades from five-yards out. Three of Kearse's 13 receptions have been over 20 yards, and all were for touchdowns. Football Outsiders does advanced statistics that include measuring the efficiency and effectiveness of receivers that are outside the spotlight, and have been targeted less than 34 times to this point in the year. Kearse sits atop that list. His teammate, Baldwin, ranks #4 in the NFL in value per play as a receiver, and #9 in overall receiver value, ahead of names like Dez Bryant, Brandon Marshall and Torrey Smith.

These three players have been called average by many. They have been doubted and blamed even within the Seahawks fan base. As they welcome in yet another sub-six-foot dynamo, it is time to recognize this group for being anything but average. They have won games for this team this season. They will win more down the line. A franchise that has seen the like of Steve Largent, Brian Blades, and Joey Galloway may be witnessing the best performance by a wide receiver group in Seahawks history. No collection of players has done more with the opportunities given than these guys. The story line from here on out will be that Percy Harvin elevated this group of receivers. The truth is that they are already great, and are about to get a whole lot better.

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